Vegas Odds Atlanta Falcons

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Vegas Odds Atlanta Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons put their ugly 2020 season behind them with new head coach Arthur Smith (formerly the Titans’ offensive coordinator), a slew of new positional coaches, and a high draft position. At the fourth spot, the Falcons have an interesting choice to make. Matt Ryan is aging and is a distant image of his MVP self– does Atlanta pull the trigger on a quarterback? They’re also running out of running back options after benching Todd Gurley in favor of Ito Smith late in the year.

Four of six defensive backs to see significant time this season are due to hit free agency, as is captain center Alex Mack. One thing is certain: the Falcons will have high turnover this offseason. Another major piece for Atlanta this season was the hiring of Terry Fontenot as their general manager– someone who’s been in the NFC South for years (came from New Orleans, previously Tampa Bay). It’s clear Atlanta wants to move in a new direction and they have plenty of moves ahead of them.

Atlanta Falcons odds

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions. Sun 11/29 1:00 ET. Las Vegas Raiders. Atlanta Falcons. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta Falcons Team Report including odds, performence stats, injuries, betting trends & recent transactions.

Best Falcons betting site(s)

Falcons prop bets

Prop bets are based on individual performance, typically surrounding players. Calvin Ridley was a player that was expected to have a breakout year in 2020, which he did. Ridley was a popular player for prop betting last season; for example, his projected receiving total in Atlanta’s Week 3 matchup with the Chicago Bears was 82.5 yards. Ridley went off for 109 receiving yards that week, giving those who bet over his receiving prop a win.

Search below for Atlanta Falcons team or player props currently being offered at sportsbooks. You can also look around at other teams and players using this tool. Happy shopping!

Falcons futures odds

Futures are long-term bets that can range from an offseason to a full season (or beyond). Team win totals, award winners, and player performance are common futures. For example:

2020 Odds to win NFL OROY

Joe Burrow +220
Tua Tagovailoa +290
Clyde Edwards-Helarie +500
Justin Herbert +1200

This line for the Offensive Rookie of the Year would often be bet before the season starts. Futures allow for bettors to capitalize on players they think are favorites to win awards long before the odds shift away from their favor. For example, Herbert opened with odds of +1200 to win the OROY award after the NFL Draft; his odds shifted and he eventually won the award in December.

Falcons Super Bowl LVI odds

The Atlanta Falcons opened with +5000 odds to win Super Bowl LVI. Those odds are comparable to the Cardinals, Raiders, and Bears.

Falcons NFC South odds

The Atlanta Falcons were eliminated from NFC South contention in 2020.

Falcons win totals

NFL win totals will be released later this offseason. Keep your eyes on this page for the latest NFL projected win totals.

Atlanta Falcons 2021 schedule and betting odds

Check back for the complete Falcons 2021 schedule along with the opening spreads for every game.

How to bet on the Atlanta Falcons

Moneyline

The moneyline is the simplest of bets, decided by the straight-up winner and loser of each game. Consider the following example:

Falcons +185
Packers -240

The Falcons are heavy underdogs in this matchup, paying out $285 total for a $100 bet ($185 in winnings). The Packers are considered heavy favorites in this matchup (indicated by -240), requiring a $240 bet to win $100 (plus the initial bet back). How much either team wins or loses by does not matter in moneyline betting, the payout remains the same.

Point spread

Betting on the point spread is determinant on how many points a team wins or loses by. Take the following example:

Falcons -2.5 (-110)
Cardinals +2.5 (-110)

In this example, Atlanta is favored by 2.5 points, indicated by “-2.5.” If the Falcons win the game 41-35, the Falcons (-2.5) win the bet and would have a total payout of $19.09 on a $10 bet ($9.09 in profit). If the Cardinals keep the game within three and lose 41-39, the Cardinals (+2.5) would win, and the payout would be the same as listed above.

Point total (over/under)

The point total refers to the over/under line set by books. This number projects the total number of points scored in a game and, like prop betting, is bet whether one thinks the score will go over or under the set point total. For example, the Falcons’ Week 16 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs had a projected point total of 53.5 points. The Falcons came up just short, 17-14, resulting in just 31 combined points. Those who bet under the point total would have cashed out that week.

Atlanta opened the season with one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL and a potent offense, resulting in point totals over league average. However, under the new direction of interim coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons sured up their defense, resulting in a midseason drop in their over/unders.

In-play and live betting

Sometimes, the most thrilling and rewarding bets are bets made while games are being played. These are referred to as live bets or in-play bets. Odds are ever-changing during games, which would prove to be fruitful for sharp and prepared bettors. For example, if the Falcons (-110) were heavily favored against the Bengals (+120) before kickoff, a payout on a $10 bet on the Falcons to win would win $9.09.

However, say the Falcons fell to a big 24-6 deficit in the first half despite controlling the overall game (due to a costly turnover or special teams gaffe). Odds may swing in favor of the Bengals, who may be a -125 favorite at halftime. Taking the Falcons to come back and win the game could present plus-odds (say, +130). Should a bettor take Atlanta (+130) at halftime and the Falcons pull off the comeback, winners would win $13 instead of $9.09 (plus the initial $10 bet).

This could also be an effective way to “hedge” your bet; say a bettor took the Bengals (+190) in that game, but Atlanta jumps out to a 14-0 first quarter lead and is controlling the overall feel of the game, bettors could hedge by throwing some money down on Atlanta (-230) to return some of the inevitably-lost bet.

Parlays and teasers

You can always string bets together in the form of parlays or teasers. Usually during busy Sundays, bettors can parlay several teams to win or cover against the spread and if all bets are successful, the payouts are multiplied. Teasers function similarly, except they allow bettors to move each point spread to a more favorable line in exchange for diminished odds.

Falcons 2020 recap

Record: 4-12

Record ATS: 7-9

Over/under record: 7-9

It was really the tale of two seasons for the Falcons– the first five weeks under Dan Quinn resulted in an 0-5 record (1-4 against the spread) and a defense that bleeds points. After Raheem Morris took over, Atlanta garnered a 6-5 record against the spread and turned their defense into a top-10 one. Offensively, the team lost their footing and the Falcons ultimately fell into a top-five draft position. The difference between the Quinn-led team and the Morris-led team resulted in varying point totals and point spreads.

Falcons 2021 offseason moves

Key free agents: Alex Mack (C), Todd Gurley (RB), Keanu Neal (S), Darqueze Dennard (CB)

Draft pick position needs: QB, EDGE, TE, LB

Most of the Falcons’ highest-priced free agents are likely on their way out; sources are indicating that Atlanta will move on from both Alex Mack and Todd Gurley. Ricardo Allen was cut by the team, narrowing their focus to Keanu Neal. As Atlanta moves farther into their rebuild, the team is cutting pricey players to make room for signing free agents and drafting high-capital players.

The ways that Atlanta can go with the fourth overall pick in the draft are nearly infinite. Should they stay at four, players like LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, and even North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance have been mentioned with the Falcons. Other players like Florida tight end Kyle Pitts have also been rumored, though the latest word is Atlanta is leaning toward a QB. They could seek to move up to the third spot in a trade with Miami to avoid having a Carolina or Washington move up and take their quarterback. Should their guy at quarterback be gone by the fourth pick, Atlanta could even trade down out of the spot.

Falcons vs. Panthers Video Picks

October 29, 2020
By Matt Blunt
VegasInsider.com

We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.

It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.

I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.

So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?

Betting Resources

Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Expert Picks:Vegas Insiders
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network
Bet:BetMGM BetRivers FanDuel PointsBet All

The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)

Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds

Spread: Carolina -3

Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130

Total: 50.5

Odds Subject to Change

2020 Betting Stats

(Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

Atlanta

Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)

Carolina

Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)

Over vs. Under
Handicapping the Total

Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.

Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.

Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.

Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.

However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.

The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.

Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.

Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.

Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46

Falcons vs. Panthers
Handicapping the Side

The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.

That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.

But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.

There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.

The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.

It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.

Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.

So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.

Key Injuries

Atlanta

DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable

Carolina

RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable

Falcons vs. Panthers - Predictions